Thursday, 24 October 2013

Lessons from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident by Arnie Gundersen


Global Research, October 16, 2013

[...]The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) claims that the chance of a meltdown is one in a million.  With 400 operating nuclear reactors worldwide, the NRC data means one meltdown would occur every 2,500 years.  The NRC bases this analysis on a technique called Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA- pray for short).  On old plants like Pilgrim and Indian Point, the NRC uses data from newer plants to show how reliable these plants will be to continue if they operate for the next 20-years. That’s like my doctor telling me how long I will live based on the heath statistics for 25-year-olds.  If we apply the NRC’s methodology, the probability of what happened at Fukushima Daiichi is one million x million x million (a 1 with eighteen zeros) to one.
But that is not what has happened in real life.  Instead, history shows us that there have been five meltdowns during the last 35 years: TMI, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi 1, 2, and 3 (apologies for not including Windscale, Santa Susana, and about a dozen more reactors).  The real numbers show that there is a seven-year frequency between meltdowns.
[…]

To watch the entire NYC presentation, visit:
http://new.livestream.com/FukushimaLessons/newyork

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